Nairobi, Uganda | By Michael Wandati | The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecasted that the country will experience short rains during the upcoming October, November, and December season, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average in several regions.
According to the department, the Western region is set to receive slightly above-average rainfall, while the central region is anticipated to experience rainfall ranging from near to below average.
This forecast is based on dynamic models and statistical analyses of past years that exhibit similarities to the current year’s weather patterns.
“The 2024 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over several parts of the country. The western sector is expected to have a fair to good distribution while the central sector is expected to have a poor to fair distribution. The rest of the country is expected to have a poor distribution,” the statement read in part.
Regions such as Western Kenya and counties in the North Rift Valley, including Kericho, West Pokot, Nandi, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Laikipia, Elgeyo Marakwet, and Baringo, are expected to receive rainfall starting in September, continuing until the third or fourth week of December. These rains will be interspersed with occasional dry spells throughout the season.
In the Mt Kenya region, which includes Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi, as well as Nairobi, moderate rainfall is anticipated from the third week of October through the first or second week of December, with sporadic rain showers possible towards the end of December.
“These counties are likely to experience rainfall with some breaks (dry spells) during the season,” the statement read in part.
In the North Western counties of Turkana and Samburu, short rains are anticipated to continue from September until either the fourth week of November or the first week of December, with the likelihood of extended dry spells.
The Coastal region is forecasted to begin receiving short rains from the fourth week of October, extending through the first or second week of December.
In Narok and its surrounding areas, short rains are expected from the fourth week of October, continuing until the third or fourth week of December.
The Northeastern region, which includes Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Isiolo, will also experience short rains starting in the fourth week of October, likely ending by the first week of December.
Also Read: 6 people killed, hundreds displaced as floods wreak havoc in Kenya
In Taita Taveta and Kajiado, short rains are expected to begin in the first week of November, continuing until the first or second week of December.
In the counties of Makueni, Kitui, Tana River, and Machakos, short rains will also start in November and are anticipated to last until the second week of December, with occasional rainfall likely towards the end of the month.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has clarified that it will continue to provide weekly weather updates and monthly forecasts as the season progresses.
